Monday, November 01, 2004

My final predictions

Harris has a new poll, 49 - 45 Bush.

My final predictions for the battleground states are derived by adding anywhere from 2 - 5 points for Bush's 'hidden strength', i.e. Christian turnout, better GOTV org, media bias, post 9-11 reality. I have taken the RCP state average and adjusted for this. In New Hampshire is the only exception where I suspect this hidden strength for Bush doesn't exist.

State RCP Prediction
Florida Bush +1.1 Bush +6
Ohio Bush +1.6 Bush +5
Pennsylvania Kerry +.8 Bush +2
Wisconsin Bush +.7 Bush +3
Iowa Bush +.5 Bush +4
Minnesota Kerry +2.2 Bush +2
Michigan Kerry +3.3 Bush +1
New Mexico Bush +2 Bush +3
Nevada Bush +4 Bush +8
New Hampshire Kerry +1.3 Kerry +1

There you have it. Bush wins with 344 electoral votes. The media and the Democrats are stunned. Shock and awe, baby.

Sunday, October 31, 2004

Ha Har!

Gallup out with a poll that shows Bush up 49 - 47 but headlines it 49 - 49....in the tank for Kerry. The last gasp MSM October surprise. Ha ha ha! NBC/WSJ 49 - 48 - 1 Bush if anyone cares. The Gallup poll was taken on Friday thru Sunday.....ye Gods, really poor techniques. Kerry is still very well done toast.

October 31 Polls

Today's Nationals: PEW 51 48 1 Bush
CBS/NYT 49 46 1 Bush

As I mentioned the tracking polls are worthless at this point since they only include days highly favorable to Kerry. Most of them have the race tied, but I will note that the mysterious TIPP poll does have Bush up by 5.
Both the above polls are very good news for Bush, but expected as has been pointed out in previous posts. All the National polls of the last week have shown Bush up by 3 - 6 points, with the exception of the largely discredited ARG poll which shows a dead heat. I wonder if AP/IPSOS will dare come about with another poll claiming a Kerry lead? A lot of people are breathlessly awaiting the Gallup poll but I am probably the only one that is a little skeptical of it.......that CNN/USA Today connection bothers me some. It is going to be a great day Tuesday for Bush and the Republicans. Now if we can just beat Tiny Tom!

Saturday, October 30, 2004

October 30 polls

Tracking polls: Zogby 47 46 2 Kerry
Rasmussen 48 47 Bush
TIPP 46 44 1 Bush
WaPo 49 48 1 Bush
FOX 47 45 1 Bush

Others: Newsweek 50 44 1 Bush

Well, this will be the last tracking poll post I will make as they will not have valid data by Monday, that is the polling will be heavily skewed toward Kerry. Why Fox decided to start a tracking poll is a mystery. It is interesting to note that NO NATIONAL poll in the last week has had Kerry closer than 3 points, and the last three were 5, 5 and 6 for Bush. That is where this race is and it may wind up even worse for Kerry than that. The media will never admit it though. It may be hard to post tomorrow, and so I will skip it unless there are new national polls. I will make note of all final polls Monday just to see how they do.

Friday, October 29, 2004

October 29 polls

Tracking Polls: Zogby 47 47 1 tie
Rasmussen 50 48 Bush
TIPP 46 46 2 tie
WaPo 50 47 1 Bush

Other: Battleground 51 46 Bush
Fox News 50 45 Bush

On balance the tracking polls are unchanged from last week at this time. Almost ALL the national polls show a lead between 3 - 5 points for Bush. I think that means 5 - 7 is the actual margin. No terror attack today, just the Bin Laden tape. Kerry is toast without some major event......landslide still intact.

Thursday, October 28, 2004

October 28 polls

Tracking Polls: Zogby 48 46 1 Bush
Rasmussen 49 47 Bush
TIPP 48 44 2 Bush
WaPo 49 48 1 Bush

Just the tracking numbers today. I suppose I expected Bush to be up a tad more but, at this point, these tracking polls become pretty useless. Bush will win this thing in a large way.

Wednesday, October 27, 2004

October 27 polls

Tracking polls: Rasmussen 49 47 Bush
Zogby 48 47 1 Bush
TIPP 48 44 2 Bush
WaPo 49 48 1 Kerry

Others: ICR 48 45 2 Bush

This should be about as good as it gets for Kerry. Except for the WaPo tracking poll, which I view as suspect, these are nearly the same on balance as a week ago. All national polls except the bogus AP/IPSOS confirm a small Bush lead. Everything is in place for a landslide victory for the President. These tracking polls should improve for Bush the next couple days, we'll see. It's crunch time. I am about worn out on it all, and worrying about a possible terror attack this weekend won't make it any easier.

Tuesday, October 26, 2004

October 26 polls

Tracking polls:

Zogby 49 46 1 Bush
Rasmussen 48 48 tie
TIPP 49 43 2 Bush
WaPo 50 48 1 Kerry

Nothing but tracking polls today....they may look a lot like this next Tuesday for that matter. Tomorrows won't be too different from today. Everything still looks good for Bush romp. MSM attempting October surprise but they have shot their wad and have no credibility left.