Friday, October 15, 2004

For the heck of it

I am going to note the polls and their positions between now and the election. It will be fun and instructive to look back on them once the results are in. Bush won the third debate handily but, as expected, the media declared Kerry the winner. There are some signs that Bush is regaining the momentum already, but I kind of doubt the media will let that happen if they can impact it (through frivoulous polls like Newsweek, etc.).

In any case here is where we stand with recent polls as of today:

Tracking Polls: ABCWaPo 48-48-1 tie
Rasmussen 49-46 Bush
Tipp 47-44-2 Bush
Zogby 48-44-1 Bush

Other recent(this week): Gallup 49-48-1 Kerry
ICR 48-43-2 Bush
CBS News 48-45-2 Bush

I think the Tracking Polls need to be looked at week over week to see a trend, day to day Kerry will do better when weekend days are included and Bush will look better when they are not, in general. As they stand right now the polls noted are slightly trending Bush as well as favoring him. I believe that at least one major poll, such as Newsweek, Time or the LA Times will come out with big Kerry numbers shortly. We will see.


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