Wednesday, October 06, 2004

Herd Mentality

I suppose it was always inevitable. Only a week ago at my favorite blogs like Polipundit, people were having fun guessing how much Bush would win by. Now, everywhere I look, there are expressions of concern. Even this one at Powerline (read "It Couldn't Get Much Closer"), where I would think they would know better.

I hate to repeat myself but, this was all predictable, in fact, I even heard Rush Limbaugh predict it. Bush does poorly in debate number one (according to most although I disagree). The MSM rushes to anoint John Kerry the winner. A Newsweek poll (that everyone knows is suspect) conveniently shows up with Kerry in the lead!! Oh boy, and just in time for the Sunday talk shows!!!

Soon, everyone is repeating the mantra that Kerry toasted Bush etc, etc. I have been around the stock market and politics long enough to see this kind of herd mentality and recognize it for what it is. It is like a Tsunami, you can look people in the eyes and explain it to them and reassure them but you are just wasting your breath. It must run it's course. The result will be a temporary bounce for Kerry.

But it is not real. All you have to do is look at the internals of the polls, whether they are distorted or not, and you see that Bush has retained his lead as the stronger leader, the more trustworthy person.

Look at Australia, until the last ten days before the election it was deemed razor thin and too close to call. Now, with three days to go, you can get four-to-one on Labor (the bad guys)!

The same thing will happen here. Once the debates are over and the media spin has run it's course, people will realize just what this election is about and they will sober up and go back to Bush (if they ever left him) in numbers at least as great as his post Labor Day lead. It always happens this way with a media induced tsunami. Debates have almost never had a lasting impact on a race.

What could? Not the debates and not even the voter fraud the Democrats are planning. And I doubt that whatever last minute trick they have up their sleeve will work either. It just isn't going to be close enough for that stuff to work. The only thing that could change the dynamics would be an in-country attack by terrorists.

You should relax, and enjoy the remaining days of the campaign as you watch the inevitable fulfill itself.......a comfortable Bush victory. Believe me, this country is not going to elect a superficial girlie-man at a time like this!

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