Friday, October 22, 2004

October 22 polls

Tracking Polls: Zogby 47 45 1 Bush
TIPP 47 46 2 Bush
Rasmussen 49 46 Bush
WaPo 50 46 2 Bush

Others: Time 51 46 2 Bush

The media keeps saying it is too close to call. This is nonsense since almost no one, except the most suspect (i.e. AP/IPSOS) has Kerry ahead. I am going to go ahead and make my landslide call, Bush 344 ev, Kerry 194 ev. There are a number of state polls that show Kerry ahead in Ohio, he will NOT win Ohio. Bush will win Ohio by around 5 points.

Today's tracking polls aren't quite as good for Bush as I thought, and they will show Kerry closing from now until next Thursday when the final shift begins......how honest will the polls be? Well, part of the problem is that most of them try to be honest but they really haven't got the 9/11 effect down yet. That will be the October surprise......just like 2002. Bush blowout will stun the media and the pollsters.

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