Sunday, October 03, 2004

Weekly Wrap-Up 10/03/04

The biggest event of this week was the debate on Thursday night. George Bush won, but was predictably declared the loser. Why? Well, lots of reasons.

First and foremost the MSM wants a close race and are rooting for the Frenchman. So they were highly motivated to declare Kerry the winner no matter what. Second, George Bush is not a debater.....he just shows up and repeats a simple message all night. But this time the expectations were that he would be who he isn't, that is, someone that is quick on their feet in a debate format. It just ain't what he does, sorry folks. Third, it is what Kerry does (i.e. as a senator he spends a lot of time bs'ing about trivia in a public forum. Nonetheless the expectations among the conservative crowd were that somehow he would come on and make a fool of himself. So, consequently, even conservatives and bloggers from Polipundit to Powerline that should know better declared that Kerry was the winner.

The bottom line is this: Bush made no gaffes, Kerry made a few. The most significant one was the 'Global Test' gaffe, of course. Over time, the fact that Bush made no mistakes of significance and that Kerry did will ultimately show that Bush won.

The next predictable thing that happenned was the most incoherent poll on the planet, Newsweek, came out Saturday and guess what???!!! Kerry has a small lead (in the margin of error of course). This just happens to be in time for the Sunday talk shows to make a lot of it. Of course even the Carville poll taken after the debate shows only a 2 pt Kerry bounce and I doubt he got even that, although this is the time of year where the race narrows in a natural fashion. But note that the Rasmussen three day rolling poll has shown no Kerry debate bounce as yet. That will be the norm, although the MSM will accomplish their goal of encouraging the Democratic base for the short term which will have a small pro-Kerry impact that will be short lived. The bottom line is that much will be made of this by the talking heads for the next couple of weeks but it will not matter in the end.

Look, this race is over and George Bush will win comfortably on November 2nd. This nation is not going to elect a patrician fop as the president in a time of war. The Democrats probably have a couple dirty tricks left up their sleeves and will commit voter fraud on as massive a scale as they can manage. Bush is more vulnerable to a series of Al Qaeda attacks than he is to the Democrats. But I suspect they are not able to do too much right now. So don't worry, be happy!


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