Monday, November 01, 2004

My final predictions

Harris has a new poll, 49 - 45 Bush.

My final predictions for the battleground states are derived by adding anywhere from 2 - 5 points for Bush's 'hidden strength', i.e. Christian turnout, better GOTV org, media bias, post 9-11 reality. I have taken the RCP state average and adjusted for this. In New Hampshire is the only exception where I suspect this hidden strength for Bush doesn't exist.

State RCP Prediction
Florida Bush +1.1 Bush +6
Ohio Bush +1.6 Bush +5
Pennsylvania Kerry +.8 Bush +2
Wisconsin Bush +.7 Bush +3
Iowa Bush +.5 Bush +4
Minnesota Kerry +2.2 Bush +2
Michigan Kerry +3.3 Bush +1
New Mexico Bush +2 Bush +3
Nevada Bush +4 Bush +8
New Hampshire Kerry +1.3 Kerry +1

There you have it. Bush wins with 344 electoral votes. The media and the Democrats are stunned. Shock and awe, baby.


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