Duke of Freedom

My final predictions

2004-11-01T17:45:00.000-08:00

Harris has a new poll, 49 - 45 Bush.

My final predictions for the battleground states are derived by adding anywhere from 2 - 5 points for Bush's 'hidden strength', i.e. Christian turnout, better GOTV org, media bias, post 9-11 reality. I have taken the RCP state average and adjusted for this. In New Hampshire is the only exception where I suspect this hidden strength for Bush doesn't exist.

State RCP Prediction
Florida Bush +1.1 Bush +6
Ohio Bush +1.6 Bush +5
Pennsylvania Kerry +.8 Bush +2
Wisconsin Bush +.7 Bush +3
Iowa Bush +.5 Bush +4
Minnesota Kerry +2.2 Bush +2
Michigan Kerry +3.3 Bush +1
New Mexico Bush +2 Bush +3
Nevada Bush +4 Bush +8
New Hampshire Kerry +1.3 Kerry +1

There you have it. Bush wins with 344 electoral votes. The media and the Democrats are stunned. Shock and awe, baby.

Ha Har!

2004-10-31T18:21:00.000-08:00

Gallup out with a poll that shows Bush up 49 - 47 but headlines it 49 - 49....in the tank for Kerry. The last gasp MSM October surprise. Ha ha ha! NBC/WSJ 49 - 48 - 1 Bush if anyone cares. The Gallup poll was taken on Friday thru Sunday.....ye Gods, really poor techniques. Kerry is still very well done toast.

October 31 Polls

2004-10-31T16:23:00.000-08:00

Today's Nationals: PEW 51 48 1 Bush
CBS/NYT 49 46 1 Bush

As I mentioned the tracking polls are worthless at this point since they only include days highly favorable to Kerry. Most of them have the race tied, but I will note that the mysterious TIPP poll does have Bush up by 5.
Both the above polls are very good news for Bush, but expected as has been pointed out in previous posts. All the National polls of the last week have shown Bush up by 3 - 6 points, with the exception of the largely discredited ARG poll which shows a dead heat. I wonder if AP/IPSOS will dare come about with another poll claiming a Kerry lead? A lot of people are breathlessly awaiting the Gallup poll but I am probably the only one that is a little skeptical of it.......that CNN/USA Today connection bothers me some. It is going to be a great day Tuesday for Bush and the Republicans. Now if we can just beat Tiny Tom!

October 30 polls

2004-10-30T14:08:00.000-07:00

Tracking polls: Zogby 47 46 2 Kerry
Rasmussen 48 47 Bush
TIPP 46 44 1 Bush
WaPo 49 48 1 Bush
FOX 47 45 1 Bush

Others: Newsweek 50 44 1 Bush

Well, this will be the last tracking poll post I will make as they will not have valid data by Monday, that is the polling will be heavily skewed toward Kerry. Why Fox decided to start a tracking poll is a mystery. It is interesting to note that NO NATIONAL poll in the last week has had Kerry closer than 3 points, and the last three were 5, 5 and 6 for Bush. That is where this race is and it may wind up even worse for Kerry than that. The media will never admit it though. It may be hard to post tomorrow, and so I will skip it unless there are new national polls. I will make note of all final polls Monday just to see how they do.

October 29 polls

2004-10-29T16:25:00.000-07:00

Tracking Polls: Zogby 47 47 1 tie
Rasmussen 50 48 Bush
TIPP 46 46 2 tie
WaPo 50 47 1 Bush

Other: Battleground 51 46 Bush
Fox News 50 45 Bush

On balance the tracking polls are unchanged from last week at this time. Almost ALL the national polls show a lead between 3 - 5 points for Bush. I think that means 5 - 7 is the actual margin. No terror attack today, just the Bin Laden tape. Kerry is toast without some major event......landslide still intact.

October 28 polls

2004-10-28T16:17:00.000-07:00

Tracking Polls: Zogby 48 46 1 Bush
Rasmussen 49 47 Bush
TIPP 48 44 2 Bush
WaPo 49 48 1 Bush

Just the tracking numbers today. I suppose I expected Bush to be up a tad more but, at this point, these tracking polls become pretty useless. Bush will win this thing in a large way.

October 27 polls

2004-10-27T14:45:00.000-07:00

Tracking polls: Rasmussen 49 47 Bush
Zogby 48 47 1 Bush
TIPP 48 44 2 Bush
WaPo 49 48 1 Kerry

Others: ICR 48 45 2 Bush

This should be about as good as it gets for Kerry. Except for the WaPo tracking poll, which I view as suspect, these are nearly the same on balance as a week ago. All national polls except the bogus AP/IPSOS confirm a small Bush lead. Everything is in place for a landslide victory for the President. These tracking polls should improve for Bush the next couple days, we'll see. It's crunch time. I am about worn out on it all, and worrying about a possible terror attack this weekend won't make it any easier.

October 26 polls

2004-10-26T14:49:00.000-07:00

Tracking polls:

Zogby 49 46 1 Bush
Rasmussen 48 48 tie
TIPP 49 43 2 Bush
WaPo 50 48 1 Kerry

Nothing but tracking polls today....they may look a lot like this next Tuesday for that matter. Tomorrows won't be too different from today. Everything still looks good for Bush romp. MSM attempting October surprise but they have shot their wad and have no credibility left.

October 25 polls

2004-10-25T14:11:00.000-07:00

Tracking Polls: Zogby 48 45 1 Bush
Rasmussen 46 48 Kerry
TIPP 50 42 2 Bush
WaPo 48 49 Kerry

Others: Gallup 51 46 1 Bush

Actually this is much better for Bush than I thought. The tracking poll average still shows Bush +2 even after weekend polling. The Gallup numbers are just icing on the cake. MSM still giving it the old college try but my landslide prediction will be right, it might even be better for Bush than I thought. And we really could go +3 or maybe even more in the Senate!

October 24 polls

2004-10-24T14:55:00.000-07:00

Tracking Polls: Zogby 48 46 1 Bush
Rasmussen 48 47 Bush
TIPP 49 43 2 Bush
WaPo 49 48 1 Bush

Others: Battleground 49 45 1 Bush

I predict all the tracking polls except TIPP will show Kerry ahead in the next few days. They are all wrong of course. I am really tired of this MSM bs of keeping this race alive but only another week or so and the reality will be there for all to see......Bush romps!

October 23 polls

2004-10-23T11:49:00.000-07:00

Tacking Polls: Rasmussen 48 47 Bush
Zogby 47 45 1 Bush
TIPP 48 44 2 Bush
ABC/WaPo 50 46 1 Bush

Others: Newsweek 48 46 1 Bush

Increased thuggery by Democrats at polling places and Republican offices is noted. These people are America's next terrorists. I will update this later if I can, it is getting harder to post on weekends.

October 22 polls

2004-10-22T09:51:00.000-07:00

Tracking Polls: Zogby 47 45 1 Bush
TIPP 47 46 2 Bush
Rasmussen 49 46 Bush
WaPo 50 46 2 Bush

Others: Time 51 46 2 Bush

The media keeps saying it is too close to call. This is nonsense since almost no one, except the most suspect (i.e. AP/IPSOS) has Kerry ahead. I am going to go ahead and make my landslide call, Bush 344 ev, Kerry 194 ev. There are a number of state polls that show Kerry ahead in Ohio, he will NOT win Ohio. Bush will win Ohio by around 5 points.

Today's tracking polls aren't quite as good for Bush as I thought, and they will show Kerry closing from now until next Thursday when the final shift begins......how honest will the polls be? Well, part of the problem is that most of them try to be honest but they really haven't got the 9/11 effect down yet. That will be the October surprise......just like 2002. Bush blowout will stun the media and the pollsters.

October 21 polls etc

2004-10-21T14:22:00.000-07:00

Tracking polls: Rasmussen 49 46 Bush
TIPP 48 45 2 Bush
Zogby 46 45 1 Bush
WaPo 51 45 1 Bush

Others: Marist 49 48 1 Bush
AP/IPSOS 49 46 2 Kerry

As expected a nice movement in the tracking polls for Bush as the Sunday numbers drop out of the mix. Tomorrow should be Bush's best day until this time next week. The Mar(x)ist and AP/IPSOS national polls are real laughers. MSM doing their best to flog a dead horse. I am almost ready to make a definite call on an EV landslide (landslide means Kerry gets less than 200 ev). My offical call at Polipundit some time ago was 344 - 194 Bush.

October 20th

2004-10-20T13:03:00.000-07:00

Tracking Polls: Zogby 46 46 1 tie
Rasmussen 48 47 Bush
TIPP 47 46 1 Bush
ABC/WaPo 50 47 1 Bush

Others: Harris* 51 43 Bush
48 46 Bush

Pew 47 47 1 tie

*Harris publishing two views in vain attempt to make Kerry appear close. Tomorrow I would expect at least a slight bump, if not a big one, for Bush in the daily tracking polls as Sunday falls out of the mix. Hmm, the final tracking polls before the election will include Sunday polling. A last attempt by the media to influence turnout? Could be. To no avail, however, as big win seems more likely to me all the time. Democrats may be so angry afterwards that they will do even further damage to themselves with lawsuits, etc. Na na nana na na hey ey ey Good bye!

October 19th polls

2004-10-19T16:26:00.000-07:00

Tracking polls: Zogby 45 45 1 tie
Rasmussen 48 47 Bush
TIPP 48 46 2 Bush
ABC/WaPo 51 46 1 Bush

Others: NBC/WSJ 48 48 1 tie
Fox News 49 42 2 Bush

As expected the tracking polls have moved in Kerry's favor with Sunday in the mix. Thursday should be in favor of Bush. Lots of state polls show movement for Kerry, this doesn't jive with the national polls. I believe that the state polls are more easily manipulated and in ALL polls I think the Sept 11th effect is not understood.
Nothing has changed and I still predict a comfortable win, perhaps even a big win, for Bush.

October 18th polls

2004-10-18T18:54:00.000-07:00

Tracking Polls: Zogby 45 45 1 tie
Rasmussen 47 47 tie
TIPP 49 45 2 Bush
ABC/WaPo 50 47 1 Bush

Others: CBS 47 45 2 Bush

As predicted the Sunday polling swung the tracking polls strongly in Kerry's favor. Some of the recent Fla, Pa and Ohio polls are troubling as well. I still think they are all bogus though and that Bush will win big, see previous posts for reasons. The tracking polls will be weak for Bush now until Thursday....or at least they should. TIPP must have some method for offsetting the Sunday bias....actually moved in favor of Bush.

October 17th polling data

2004-10-17T09:30:00.000-07:00

Tracking polls:
Rasmussen 48 - 46 Bush
Zogby 46 - 44 - 1 Bush
TIPP 48 - 45 - 2 Bush
WaPo 50 - 46 - 2 Bush

Other polls:
Gallup 52 - 44 Bush

Pretty convincing data here. Now I expect the daily tracking polls to get real close through Wednesday while the Sunday numbers (which favor Kerry) are part of the mix. The state polls are a concern too of course, although I think Bush is doing better there than the polls show. His base is going to vote and work, the other base is going to have trouble getting all their real voters out, and the fraud won't be enough to overcome that.
As I have said before, Kerry's only hope now is Al Qaeda.

Today's polls

2004-10-16T18:57:00.000-07:00

Tracking: Zogby 48 44 1 Bush
TIPP 48 45 2 Bush
Rasmussen 48 46 Bush
WaPo 50 47 1 Bush

Others: Newsweek 50 44 1 Bush
Time 48 47 3 Bush

Well now all the polls are sporting a Bush edge......now they will tighten again over the weekend as those are good Kerry polling days, if they don't Kerry may be in for a major butt-kicking. I will probably have to be doing reassuring posts here and there through next Wednesday until the weekend polling days drop off. This may be Kerry and the MSMs last hurrah.....but wait, I'm sure they have a couple last dirty tricks ready.

For the heck of it

2004-10-15T14:17:00.000-07:00

I am going to note the polls and their positions between now and the election. It will be fun and instructive to look back on them once the results are in. Bush won the third debate handily but, as expected, the media declared Kerry the winner. There are some signs that Bush is regaining the momentum already, but I kind of doubt the media will let that happen if they can impact it (through frivoulous polls like Newsweek, etc.).

In any case here is where we stand with recent polls as of today:

Tracking Polls: ABCWaPo 48-48-1 tie
Rasmussen 49-46 Bush
Tipp 47-44-2 Bush
Zogby 48-44-1 Bush

Other recent(this week): Gallup 49-48-1 Kerry
ICR 48-43-2 Bush
CBS News 48-45-2 Bush

I think the Tracking Polls need to be looked at week over week to see a trend, day to day Kerry will do better when weekend days are included and Bush will look better when they are not, in general. As they stand right now the polls noted are slightly trending Bush as well as favoring him. I believe that at least one major poll, such as Newsweek, Time or the LA Times will come out with big Kerry numbers shortly. We will see.

One Last Horse

2004-10-13T13:51:00.000-07:00

I am glad to see the debates coming to an end even though I think GWB won the first two and will hold his own in the third. Why? Because all the debates are is an opportunity for the media to portray their man as favorably as possible contra Bush no matter what happens in reality. I predict the media reaction to tonight's debate will create a new low in biased reporting of an event. And it will have some minor sticking power since very few real people will be watching with two World Series games going on at the same time.

But, once this one is over and the post debate hype is out, and the phony Newsweek and Zogby polls come in to show yet another Kerry surge the end game will begin. Things will flatten out until the last ten days and then the polls will gradually reveal what we have known for some time......Bush is comfortably ahead. Oh, the media will say the race is in doubt up until the bitter end but the signs will be there. They already are.

And It Came To Pass

2004-10-09T10:15:00.000-07:00

GWB did everything required and more, using his sense of humor to differentiate himself from a surprisingly unpleasant John Kerry last night. Score the expected TKO for Bush. This will put an end to any phony momentum that the MSM has been reporting. Now, they will continue to concoct polls that show Kerry in the race and even leading by a point or two.......but as I have said for some time.....this is over. Watch the polls that aren't in on the fix.......like Rasmussen, Fox and Gallup (not with CNN/USA). These will soon show that Bush has regained the upper hand. In fact, Rasmussen may already be showing that. Polipundit is the place to go for excellent poll analysis like this. The election itself will probably come down just like Australia did today, the MSM will be screaming how close it is and throwing everything they can muster at Bush as they get even more desperate than they already are (hard to believe it could get worse, huh?). But in the end Bush will win and it may even be a crushing victory. Actually the same thing happened here in California with the MSM running phony polls (especially the LA Times) that showed the race close and doing everything they could to slime Arnold.......to no avail. Arnold smashed Bustamante despite only one major newspaper supporting him in the whole state. As I keep saying......enjoy it, enjoy the beauty of it all.

Tonight's Debate

2004-10-08T11:53:00.000-07:00

Are debates that important? No, I don't believe so. They are basically tools that the MSM uses to try to influence the public perception of the race. Therefore they certainly don't benefit conservatives. However it is important for the conservative side to recognize them for what they are and to take an AGGRESSIVE debate stance.

What President Bush must do tonight is to stay on offense. To do this he must pay minimal attention to the questions he receives (unless he get a set-up which is very unlikely) and then spend the entire time exposing John Kerry's abysmal Senate record in defense, intelligence and economic issues. There is so much material here that one could easily spend more than the 30 minutes or so the President will need to be talking.

An example: " Senator Kerry has been describing our economy as bad. What is he talking about? Our enemployment rate is lower than when Bill Clinton was seeking reelection in 1996. He seems to think we ought to tax our job producers like the Socialist states in Europe do.....I guess he wants their unemployment rates, it's nearly 10% in Germany. Oh, and France? Also 10%. John Kerry believes in stealing your money and giving it to bureaucrats. He wants to make as many of you dependent on Government as possible. When we took office we inherited a recession, a crashing stock market and then the events of 9/11 and the devastating impact that had on our economy. And now we have come back and in the last year created nearly 2 million jobs while pursuing a Global War on Terror. That is more jobs created than Germany, Russia and (pause) France combined! And all Mr Kerry can do is spout Gloom and Doom and whine. Of course he could point to all the economic bills that he promoted in his 30 year career, (pause for effect) but there aren't any. In fact, 30 years and how many bills has the Junior Senator from Massachusetts sponsored? We are making strong economic progress despite all our challenges and we are winning the GWOT at the same time despite the negativity of our opponents."

I am sure that you could give voice to your own soliloquys of this sort that would keep the pressure on the Senator!

The bottom line is that President Bush must avoid sounding defensive. If he does this the MSM will have to give him a draw in the debate, which is the same as a huge victory. If you couple that with probable positive results in the Afghanistan and Australian elections tomorrow and Kerry's phony momentum will come to an abrupt halt.

Herd Mentality

2004-10-06T14:32:00.000-07:00

I suppose it was always inevitable. Only a week ago at my favorite blogs like Polipundit, people were having fun guessing how much Bush would win by. Now, everywhere I look, there are expressions of concern. Even this one at Powerline (read "It Couldn't Get Much Closer"), where I would think they would know better.

I hate to repeat myself but, this was all predictable, in fact, I even heard Rush Limbaugh predict it. Bush does poorly in debate number one (according to most although I disagree). The MSM rushes to anoint John Kerry the winner. A Newsweek poll (that everyone knows is suspect) conveniently shows up with Kerry in the lead!! Oh boy, and just in time for the Sunday talk shows!!!

Soon, everyone is repeating the mantra that Kerry toasted Bush etc, etc. I have been around the stock market and politics long enough to see this kind of herd mentality and recognize it for what it is. It is like a Tsunami, you can look people in the eyes and explain it to them and reassure them but you are just wasting your breath. It must run it's course. The result will be a temporary bounce for Kerry.

But it is not real. All you have to do is look at the internals of the polls, whether they are distorted or not, and you see that Bush has retained his lead as the stronger leader, the more trustworthy person.

Look at Australia, until the last ten days before the election it was deemed razor thin and too close to call. Now, with three days to go, you can get four-to-one on Labor (the bad guys)!

The same thing will happen here. Once the debates are over and the media spin has run it's course, people will realize just what this election is about and they will sober up and go back to Bush (if they ever left him) in numbers at least as great as his post Labor Day lead. It always happens this way with a media induced tsunami. Debates have almost never had a lasting impact on a race.

What could? Not the debates and not even the voter fraud the Democrats are planning. And I doubt that whatever last minute trick they have up their sleeve will work either. It just isn't going to be close enough for that stuff to work. The only thing that could change the dynamics would be an in-country attack by terrorists.

You should relax, and enjoy the remaining days of the campaign as you watch the inevitable fulfill itself.......a comfortable Bush victory. Believe me, this country is not going to elect a superficial girlie-man at a time like this!

Weekly Wrap-Up 10/03/04

2004-10-03T13:36:00.000-07:00

The biggest event of this week was the debate on Thursday night. George Bush won, but was predictably declared the loser. Why? Well, lots of reasons.

First and foremost the MSM wants a close race and are rooting for the Frenchman. So they were highly motivated to declare Kerry the winner no matter what. Second, George Bush is not a debater.....he just shows up and repeats a simple message all night. But this time the expectations were that he would be who he isn't, that is, someone that is quick on their feet in a debate format. It just ain't what he does, sorry folks. Third, it is what Kerry does (i.e. as a senator he spends a lot of time bs'ing about trivia in a public forum. Nonetheless the expectations among the conservative crowd were that somehow he would come on and make a fool of himself. So, consequently, even conservatives and bloggers from Polipundit to Powerline that should know better declared that Kerry was the winner.

The bottom line is this: Bush made no gaffes, Kerry made a few. The most significant one was the 'Global Test' gaffe, of course. Over time, the fact that Bush made no mistakes of significance and that Kerry did will ultimately show that Bush won.

The next predictable thing that happenned was the most incoherent poll on the planet, Newsweek, came out Saturday and guess what???!!! Kerry has a small lead (in the margin of error of course). This just happens to be in time for the Sunday talk shows to make a lot of it. Of course even the Carville poll taken after the debate shows only a 2 pt Kerry bounce and I doubt he got even that, although this is the time of year where the race narrows in a natural fashion. But note that the Rasmussen three day rolling poll has shown no Kerry debate bounce as yet. That will be the norm, although the MSM will accomplish their goal of encouraging the Democratic base for the short term which will have a small pro-Kerry impact that will be short lived. The bottom line is that much will be made of this by the talking heads for the next couple of weeks but it will not matter in the end.

Look, this race is over and George Bush will win comfortably on November 2nd. This nation is not going to elect a patrician fop as the president in a time of war. The Democrats probably have a couple dirty tricks left up their sleeves and will commit voter fraud on as massive a scale as they can manage. Bush is more vulnerable to a series of Al Qaeda attacks than he is to the Democrats. But I suspect they are not able to do too much right now. So don't worry, be happy!